It’s a bit early to sing Happy Days Are Here Again, but most key industry sectors expect another strong economic year.
These days, most economists find it hard to contain their excitement about the state of the economy, and they have plenty of data to back their bullishness on everything from high growth to low inflation.
These days, most economists find it hard to contain their excitement about the state of the economy, and they have plenty of data to back their bullishness on everything from high growth to low inflation.
Reasons for optimism are as plentiful as snowflakes in January. Locally, metropolitan Madison’s unemployment rate of 2.2% remains the lowest in Wisconsin and harkens back to the days of the dot-com boom.
Wisconsin’s 3.4% unemployment rate is its lowest for the month of October in 18 years, more state residents are now employed than ever before, and the labor force participation rate (68.8%) is six percentage points above the national rate. The Foxconn Technology Group development is expected to create such a demand for workers that the state is devoting $6.8 million to recruit people from the outside, in part so that the Taiwanese electronics manufacturing giant doesn’t take all its workers from existing employers.
Nationally, consumer confidence has soared to a 17-year high, the U.S. Commerce Department has just reported consecutive quarters of 3% or higher growth, the stock market has reported several record closes, and while this is hardly a consensus view, advocates for tax reform believe it will sustain the recovery, at higher rate of growth, for several more years.
Elliot Eisenberg, an economist with GraphsandLaughs LLC, presented his mostly upbeat forecast recently in a program sponsored by State Bank of Cross Plains. With notable exceptions such as the availability of labor, just about every measure — GDP growth, inflation, consumer and business confidence — is either solid or rising.
One reason Eisenberg is so bullish is the U.S. is gaining ground simultaneously with other western democracies. “The global economy hasn’t been this solid since 2006–07,” he notes. “In the recent past, our economy was pretty decent but other economies were weaker. Now they are all pretty strong. This is about as good as it gets.”
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